textfiles/ufo/aaas.txt

              REPORT ON A SURVEY OF THE MEMBERSHIP OF THE
      AMERICAN ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY CONCERNING THE UFO PHENOMENON

                                SUMMARY


Refereed   journals,  to  which  scientists  turn  for  their  reliable
information, carry virtually no information on the UFO  problem.   Does
this  imply  that  scientists  have  no  views  and  no thoughts on the
subject, or that all scientists  consider  it  insignificant?  Does  it
imply  that  scientists  have  no reports to submit comparable with UFO
reports published in newspapers and popular books? The purpose of  this
survey is to answer these questions.

Of  2,611 questionnaires mailed to members of the American Astronomical
Society, 1,356 were returned, 34 anonymously. Only two members  offered
to  waive anonymity. These facts and many comments confirm that the UFO
problem is a sensitive issue for most scientists. Nevertheless, only  a
few  (13)  respondents  made  critical remarks about the subject or the
survey; 50 made encouraging statements,  34  offered  to  help,  and  7
indicated that they are actively studying the problem.

Each  respondent  was  asked  to  state  his opinion on whether the UFO
problem  deserves  scientific  study:  23%  replied  "certainly",   30%
"probably", 27% "possibly", 17% "probably not", and 3% "certainly not",
which  represents  a positive attitude among 53% of the respondents, as
against a negative attitude among 20%. Analysis of  the  returns  shows
that  older  scientists  are markedly more negative to the problem than
are younger scientists. One also finds that opinions correlate strongly
with time spent reading about the subject. The fraction of  respondents
who  think  that  the subject certainly or probably deserves scientific
study rises from 29%, among those who have spent less than one hour, to
68% among those who have spent more than 365 hours in such reading.  It
appears  that  popular books and publications by established scientists
exert a positive influence on scientists' opinions,  whereas  newspaper
and magazine articles exert negligible influence.

Respondents were asked to express their views on possible causes of UFO
reports  by  assigning  "prior  probabilities"  to  four "conventional"
causes [(a) a hoax,  (b)  a  familiar  phenomenon  or  device,  (c)  an
unfamiliar  natural  phenomenon,  and  (d)  an  unfamiliar  terrestrial
device] and  four  "unconventional"  causes  [(e)  an  unknown  natural
phenomenon,  (f) an alien device, (g) some specifiable other cause, and
(h) some unspecifiable other cause]. There was a very  wide  spread  of
opinions  on  this  issue.  Averaging all returns gives the values: (a)
.12, (b) .22, (c) .23, (d) .21, (e) .09, (f) .03, (g) .07. This average
response is  therefore  quite  open-minded,  although  many  individual
responses  are  not.  Older  people  tend  to give more credence to the
possibility of a hoax and  less  to  unconventional  possibilities.  By
contrast,  those  who  have studied the subject extensively attach less
weight to  the  possibility  of  a  hoax  and  greater  weight  to  the
unconventional possibilities.

Over  80%  of  respondents expressed a willingness to contribute to the
resolution of the UFO problem if they could see a way to do so but,  of
those  expressing  this  interest, only 13% could see a way.  This is a
notable consensus which may encapsulate the dilemma which this  problem
presents  to  scientists.  Those  who have studied the subject are more
willing to help and more likely to see a way to help.

Most    respondents    consider    that    meteorology,     psychology,
astronomy/astrophysics  and  physics  have relevance to the UFO problem
and some consider that aeronautical engineering and sociology may  also
be  relevant.   Most  respondents  (75%)  would  like  to  obtain  more
information on the subject, but they express a  strong  preference  for
getting it from scientific journals rather than from books or lectures.

The  returns identified 62 respondents who had witnessed or obtained an
instrumental record of an event which they could not identify and which
they thought might be related to the UFO phenomenon. The  total  number
of events reported was larger (65) since some respondents reported more
than one event. In addition, ten _identified_ strange observations were
mentioned,  four  investigations were described (including one detailed
study of ground traces), and attention  was  drawn  to  a  few  strange
events  described in the scientific literature. It was found that these
62 respondents have spent longer than average studying the UFO problem,
that they are more positive  in  their  assessment  of  the  scientific
importance  of  the  problem, and that they tend to be more open-minded
about unconventional  explanations.   Only  18  (about  30%)  of  these
respondents   indicated   that   they  had  previously  reported  their
observations; seven to the Air Force, Navy or NORAD, one to the police,
two to airport authorities, seven to other scientists,  and  one  to  a
newspaper.

Sixty-three  percent  (63%)  of  those  reporting events were night-sky
observers, as against 50% of respondents who  did  not  report  events.
Thirty-six  (36)  of  the  events  comprised  lights seen in the sky at
night.  Twelve (12) were of  point  lights  which  were  more  or  less
puzzling;  four  (4) were of formations of lights; and four (4) were of
diffuse lights. Three respondents independently described what appeared
to be a searchlight playing on a cloud when there were no clouds in the
sky.  Four described disk-like objects, and five described objects with
different shapes. Three cases concerned objects which appeared to  emit
smaller  objects  or "sparks." One case described apparent interference
with an automobile electrical system (as did also a daylight case).

There were sixteen accounts of strange objects seen by day.  Five  were
of small objects, seven were of disk-shaped objects, and four described
other miscellaneous observations.

Seven  respondents described photographic records of strange phenomena,
and three were kind enough to provide me with copies of the photographs
or film. (With help, I was able to make  plausible  interpretations  of
two of these.) One respondent recalled a radar observation he had made,
another  described  two  strange  radio  records, and a third described
puzzling records obtained by a satellite tracking station.

This study leads to the following answers to  the  questions  initially
posed.   To  judge  from  this survey of the membership of the American
Astronomical Society, it appears that:

(a) scientists have thoughts and views but no  answers  concerning  the
UFO problem;

(b)  Although there is no consensus, more scientists are of the opinion
that the problem certainly or probably deserves scientific  study  than
are of the opinion that it certainly or probably does not;

and  (c) a small fraction (of order 5%) are likely to report varied and
puzzling observations, not unlike so-called "UFO reports" made  by  the
general  public.  As is the case with reports from the public, many may
be unusual observations of  familiar  objects,  but  some  seem  to  be
definitely strange.

These  results  are consistent with the findings of an earlier but more
limited survey of members of the American Institute of Aeronautics  and
Astronautics (Sturrock, 1974b), except that the opinions of astronomers
(expressed in 1975) concerning the significance of the UFO problem were
more  positive than were the views of aeronautical engineers (expressed
in 1973).