94 lines
5.3 KiB
Plaintext
94 lines
5.3 KiB
Plaintext
SUBJECT: THE HILL ABDUCTION CASE FILE: 2705
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PART 4
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PATTERN RECOGNITION & ZETA RETICULI
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By Carl Sagan & Steven Soter
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"The Zeta Reticuli Incident" is very provocative. It claims that a
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map, allegedly shown on board a landed extraterrestrial spacecraft to
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Betty Hill in 1961, later drawn by her from memory and published in
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1966, corresponds well to similar maps of the closest stars resembling
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the sun based on stellar positions in the 1969 Gliese Catalog of Nearby
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Stars. The comparison maps were made by Marjorie Fish using a three
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dimensional physical model and later by a group of Ohio State
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University students using a presumably more accurate (i.e., less
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subjective) computer generated projection. The argument rests on how
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well the maps agree and on the statistical significance of the
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comparison.
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Figure 1 [not available here] show the Hill map and the Ohio State
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computer map with connecting lines as given in the ASTRONOMY article.
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The inclusion of these lines (said to represent trade or navigation
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routes) to establish a resemblance between the maps is what a lawyer
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would call "leading the witness". We could just as well have drawn
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lines as in the bottom of Figure 1 to lead the other way. A less biased
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comparison of the two data sets, without connecting lines as in Figure
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2, shows little similarity. Any residual resemblance is enhanced by
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there being the same number of points in each map, and can be accounted
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for by the manner in which these points were selected.
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The computer star map includes the sun and 14 stars selected from a
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list of the 46 nearest stars similar to the sun, derived from the
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Gliese catalog. It is not clear what criteria were used to select
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precisely these 14 stars from the list, other than the desire to find a
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resemblance to the Hill map. However, we can always pick and choose
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from a large random data set some subset that resembles a preconceived
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pattern. If we are free also to select the vantage point (from all
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possible directions for viewing the projection of a three dimensional
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pattern), it is a simple matter to optimize the desired resemblance. Of
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course such a resemblance in the case of selection from a random set is
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a contrivance -- an example of the statistical fallacy known as "the
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enumeration of favorable circumstances".
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The presence of such a fallacy in this case appears even more likely
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when we examine the original Hill drawing, published in The Interrupted
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Journey by John Fuller. In addition to the prominent points that Betty
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Hill connected by lines, her map also includes a number of apparently
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random dots scattered about -- evidently to represent the presence of
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background stars but not meant to suggest actual positions. However,
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three of these dots appear in the version of the Hill map used in the
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comparison, while the others are absent. Thus some selection was made
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even from the original Hill map, although not to the same extent as
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from the Gliese catalog. This allow even greater freedom to contrive a
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resemblance.
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Finally, we lear from The Interrupted Journey that Betty Hill first
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thought she saw a remarkable similarity between her UFO star map and a
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map of the constellation Pegasus published in the New York Times in
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1965 to show the position of the quasar CTA-102. How many star maps,
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derived from the Gliese catalog or elsewhere, have been compared with
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Betty Hill's before a supposed agreement was found? If we suppress
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information on such comparisons we also overestimate the significance
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of the result.
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The argument on "The Zeta Reticuli Incident" demonstrates only that
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if we set out to find a pattern correlation between two nearly random
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data sets by selecting at will certain elements from each and ignoring
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others, we will always be successful. The argument cannot serve even to
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suggest a verification of the Hill story -- which in any case is well
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known to be riddled with internal and external contradictions, and
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which is amenable to interpretations which do not invoke
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extraterrestrial intelligence. Those of us concerned with the
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possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence must take care to demand
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adequately rigorous standards of evidence. It is all too easy, as the
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old Chinese proverb says, for the imprisoned maiden to mistake the
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beating of her own heart for the hoof beats of her rescuer's horse.
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Steven Soter is a research associate working under the advisement of
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Carl Sagan, director of Cornell University's laboratory for Planetary
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Studies.
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**********************************************
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* THE U.F.O. BBS - http://www.ufobbs.com/ufo *
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********************************************** |