266 lines
17 KiB
Plaintext
266 lines
17 KiB
Plaintext
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ÉÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍ»
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º CHAOS AND SOCIAL ENGINEERING º
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º º
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º by º
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º Mack Tanner º
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ÈÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍÍͼ
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"Law of the Perversity of Nature: You cannot successfully
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determine beforehand which side of the bread to butter."
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--Anonymous
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Most of you have probably heard the story about the
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clever young man who offers to go to work for a businessman
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on a try-out basis in which the young man will be paid only
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one cent on the first day, two cents for the second day, four
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cent on the third day, and so on, the salary doubling each
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day until the businessman decides whether or not he wants to
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hire the young man on a permanent basis.
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Thinking he's getting a good deal, the businessman takes
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on the kid and a month slips by before the businessman
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decides he won't keep the young man on. When the young man
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presents the bill for his wages for thirty days, the
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businessman discovers it's cheaper to sign over the company
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than paying the wages.
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The businessman has just learned the truth of compound
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interest. By doubling a single cent thirty times, you end up
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with $5,368,709.12 on the last doubling. The business man
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owes the young man over 10 million dollars for the thirty
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days of work.
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While this common mathematical principle has long been
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understood, it's only been in recent years that scientists
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have examined and explored what impact compounding small sums
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can have on what are called chaotic systems.
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A chaotic system is any dynamic physical, biological, or
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mathematical system in which a complicated set of data
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interact in non-linear and non-repetitive way. (Anyone
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interested in a more technical explanation of chaos theory
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should check out a library book on the subject.)
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Until recently, the philosophy of determinism was the
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basis for much of scientific thought and direction. The
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concept was that if we only knew the equations and had the
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precise data, the future could be predicted. This concept is
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best summarized in Laplace's famous statement:
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"An intellect which at any given moment knew all the
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forces that animate Nature and the mutual positions of
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the beings that comprise it, if this intellect were vast
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enough to submit its data to analysis, could condense
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into a single formula the movement of the greatest
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bodies of the universe and that of the lightest atom:
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for such an intellect nothing could be uncertain; and
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the future just like the past would be present before
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its eyes." Pierre Simon de Laplace, 1749-1827
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Chaos theory now shows how naive and ridiculous this
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statement is. What scientists have come to understand in
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only the last few years is that in all chaotic systems, very
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small variations in input data can have a profound impact on
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the future development of the system. The more the variables
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at the initiation of the system, the greater the difficulty
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in predicting what impact tiny increases or decrease in a
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single variable will have on the progress of the system. In
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a perverse sort of way, the longer term the prediction
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attempted, the greater and more accurate the amount of
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initial data that is required to make the prediction. As the
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thousands, or millions of different variables act upon each
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other, no human, nor human manufactured computing machine can
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predict what the smallest change to any single variable will
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do to the future of the system.
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The most commonly cited example of a chaotic system is
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the weather. Other chaotic systems include hydraulic
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turbulence, biological species interaction, epidemiology, and
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all human societies and economies.
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Understanding chaos theory explains why scientists have
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such a difficult time predicting the weather more than
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twenty-four hour in advance and why they now realize that
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they will never be able to make trustworthy long-term weather
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predictions. It is simply impossible to collect the in-put
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data in the quantity and with the degree of accuracy
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necessary to make a credible long term prediction. (Of
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course, the government will never admit this is good reason
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to stop spending billions trying to do so!)
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Understanding chaos theory also explains why it will be
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impossible for humans to ever control the weather to produce
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a desired result with no danger of unexpected and undesirable
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results. Cloud seeding may make it rain over a dry Iowa corn
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field, but the impact of that intervention might result in an
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hurricane destroying a coastal city in Florida six months, or
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six years in the future.
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Given the complexity of the non-linear equations in
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describing weather patterns, no scientist will ever be able
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to prove that it was the cloud seeding that caused the
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hurricane, nor, for that matter, that the cloud seeding
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didn't contribute to the hurricane's development.
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Humans can impact on or redirect a chaotic system, but
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we can not prove or disprove exactly how the human
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intervention impacted on the system over the long term. We
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will know we changed the system, but we can never know how we
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changed the system, nor what the system would have done if we
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had changed nothing.
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All human societies and all human economic systems are
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chaotic systems. They develop and progress as a result of an
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incredible amount of input in which any single individual may
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do something that will have an unexpected and unpredictable
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multiplier impact on how the system will operate at some
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future point in time.
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Chaos theory explains why social engineering can never
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produce the expected result and why such schemes will always
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produce unintended results. Chaos theory also explains why
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neither the social engineers nor the critics of social
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engineering can ever prove what real impact an attempt at
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social engineering actually had on the economy and the
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society.
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We have been listening to a lot of political debate
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about what caused the riots in Los Angeles. The
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conservatives blame the deteriorating situation of the city
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on social programs of the Great Society, welfare dependency,
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government regulation, minimum wages laws, high taxes, and
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moral decline while the liberals blame the failure of the
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government to spend enough money, racism, police brutality,
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illegal immigration, and the entire American corporate
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cultural.
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The entire debate is total bullshit!
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There is absolutely no way anyone can scientifically
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establish what things might have been done differently that
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could have prevented the deterioration of our cities into the
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current social morass. Furthermore, there is no way anyone
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can scientifically demonstrate what new proposals for social
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engineering will produce intended and only intended future
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results.
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The entire political debate over the domestic agenda
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that goes on in connection with the current presidential
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election is also total bullshit!
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Nobody can explain scientifically exactly what caused
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the recent recession nor place with any scientific certainty
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the blame on any set of government actions. And nobody can
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predict what impact all of the different proposed economic
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solutions will actually have on the future world economic
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situation.
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Yet every politician is demanding that we spend a
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trillion dollars on programs that they can't demonstrate will
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work and they won't ever to be able to prove that they did
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work once they are in place.
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The national economy and its interrelation with the
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world economy is a chaotic system even more complex,
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unpredictable, and unmanageable than the world weather and
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climate patterns. Any politician who claims he can control
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it for the benefit of everyone without damaging large groups
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of other people is either a fool, or a crook, or more likely
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both.
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The government can do lots of things that will have
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short term impact on the economy. Political leaders can
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lower interest rates, shift investment opportunities,
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legislate prices, regulate exchanges, and all those things
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will alter the economic future of the economy. But chaos
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theory explains why we can not predict what the long term
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result of such action will be and why the unintended results
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may well be much more disastrous than the original problem
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could have ever become if left alone and free of government
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intervention.
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All of this is scientific fact that can be described by
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observation of prior events, the examination of mathematical
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formulas and demonstrated with computer modeling.
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But don't expect any political candidate, office holder,
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member of congress, bureaucrat, or scientist working on a fat
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government contract to admit the truth of this. For them to
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do so would be for them to admit that the American federal
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budget is being wasted on social engineering projects with no
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guarantees that they will work or that they won't produce
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disasters.
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Chaos theory not only explains why economic central
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planning can't work, it also explains why government
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bureaucracy grows so fast.
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Because political leaders and the bureaucrats refuse to
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recognize that what they are trying to do can't be done, they
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work under the delusion that they only thing preventing
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ultimate success is more and better data. They excuse their
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repeated failures by insisting they didn't have enough data,
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*which is right*, but they refuse to understand that no
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matter how much data they collect, it will never be enough to
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allow them to predict and control what the economy is going
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to do.
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Instead, they collect and quantify increasingly greater
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amounts of data as the cost escalates much like the salary of
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the boy who stated out at a penny for the first day's work.
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The more information they collect, the more difficult the
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task of correlating, interpreting, and analyzing the
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information they have. They hire ever larger numbers of
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people who can be put to the task of collecting and handling
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the information.
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When things go wrong, the excuse is always a failure in
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intelligence and the proposed solution is to hire more people
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and gather more raw data. The more things go wrong, the more
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money they spend trying to fix it. A fascinating conclusion
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of chaos theory is that you cannot predict the result of the
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fix, even if you try to put everything back exactly like it
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was! When we used DDT to kill the bugs and found out that it
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did more harm than good - in unexpected ways - the decision
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to quit using DDT may have resulted in greater damage than
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would have been the result of continuing its use.
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But if the government can't control the economy for the
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benefit of all, what is the government doing?
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Our politician leaders and the bureaucrats they hire
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play exactly the same role in the modern secular state that
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pagan priests and shamans played in ancient civilizations.
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Except, where ancient pagan priests and shamans promised to
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magically control the weather, stop the earthquakes, and
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curse the enemy with disease and pestilence, these modern
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wizards and magicians promise us that everyone will have a
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good job, decent medical care, and a useful education while
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avoiding drugs, unwanted pregnancies, and crime in the
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streets.
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Fortunately for us all, the weather generally does treat
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human populations pretty well, and despite the bungled
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attempts of government interference, millions of free people,
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all looking out for their own selfish interest, usually
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succeed in creating a chaotic, but healthy economy that
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provides most of us with all the good things of life and a
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few of us the chance to get rich.
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Like their ancient counterparts always claimed credit
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for spring rains, sunny weather, and good harvests, the
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modern political wizards and magicians claim credit for the
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successful economy and insist that the taxpayers contribute
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even more money to guarantee continued success in the future.
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They are taking credit for things they didn't do and charging
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us high prices for not doing it.
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The amount they take for themselves and for those whom
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they decide to bless with entitlement programs continues to
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grow. Most of us are working five full months a year for the
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sole purpose of feeding our monstrous and useless government
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beast. And still the wizards are telling us they need more
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money.
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They will keep demanding more money for as long as the
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taxpayer will pay it. The debt will grow like the wages owed
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the clever young man until it reaches the point where the
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whole government system will collapse under the weight of
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it's own debt.
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But don't worry. Just like the good weather stuck
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around for long after humans gave up on paying pagan priests
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to guarantee good harvests, the basic economy, the sum total
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of all human interactions and economic exchanges, will still
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be around long after the collapse of big government.
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+-----------------------------------------------------------------+
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| THE CHAOS ADVOCATE is copyrighted by Mack Tanner. You |
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| may review and read sections of this electronic publication |
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| to determine whether or not you would like to read the entire |
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| work. If you decide to read the entire magazine, or if you |
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| keep a copy of the magazine in the unpacked, readable format |
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| for your own personal use or review for more than two days |
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| must pay a SHARELIT fee by mailing $2.00 to |
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| Mack Tanner |
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| 1234 Nearing Rd. |
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| Moscow, ID 83843 |
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| If you want a receipt, include a self-addressed and |
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| stamped envelope. |
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+-----------------------------------------------------------------+
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