227 lines
13 KiB
Plaintext
227 lines
13 KiB
Plaintext
SUBJECT: FAILURE OF SCIENCE UFO-DEBUNKING FILE: UFO3257
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
THE FAILURE OF THE "SCIENCE"
|
|
OF UFO-DEBUNKING
|
|
|
|
by I. Scott
|
|
|
|
Reprinted from the International
|
|
UFO Reporter_ by permission of The
|
|
J. Allen Hynek Center for UFO
|
|
Studies
|
|
|
|
----------------------------------
|
|
|
|
|
|
An article in the Fall 1986 issue of _The Skeptical Inquirer_ asserts that
|
|
some CSICOP members "have argued persuasively that the study of Unidentified
|
|
Flying Objects is not a science."
|
|
|
|
Is this correct? How does one establish whether or not something is a
|
|
science?
|
|
|
|
Science is defined as a branch of study concerned with the observation and
|
|
classification of facts. It is divided into major and minor branches
|
|
depending on the amount of information contained in the subject. For
|
|
example, the study of physical phenomena is physics. The study of the
|
|
respiratory system of a parasite species would not be a major branch of
|
|
science. Nonetheless data about it could be published in scientific journals
|
|
under various subjects such as parasitology. Thus, since its study is
|
|
accepted in the scientific literature, it can be considered a minor
|
|
scientific branch and is a science.
|
|
|
|
A criterion that determines whether a subject is scientifically accepted is
|
|
whether original, reviewed research papers on it exist in scientific
|
|
journals (the scientific literature). In the case of UFO study, the paper
|
|
would also need to indicate the possibility that not all UFOs are IFOs. A
|
|
general guide to what constitutes the scientific literature could be those
|
|
publications listed in the _Science Citation Source Index_.
|
|
|
|
To test the hypothesis that study of the UFO phenomenon is not a science, I
|
|
submitted one original research article and two abstracts on aspects of the
|
|
UFO phenomenon to scientific societies. All were readily accepted.
|
|
|
|
Thus, study of the UFO phenomenon has been accepted in the scientific
|
|
literature and is a science. Further confirmation of this is Peter
|
|
Sturrock's 1976 poll of the American Astronomical Society showing that 80
|
|
percent of the members agreed that the UFO phenomenon deserves scientific
|
|
attention.
|
|
|
|
A different view is taken by UFO debunkers. An example of their argument is
|
|
expressed in a 1979 _New Scientist_ essay, "The Failure of the `Science' of
|
|
Ufology," by James Oberg. Oberg writes that "criticism has been leveled at
|
|
the very philosophical foundations of Ufology. The inability of ufological
|
|
theorists to come to grips with these objections represents the most serious
|
|
roadblock to the acceptance of Ufology as a legitimate branch of modern
|
|
science...Ufology refuses to play by the rules of scientific thought,
|
|
demanding instead special exemptions from time-tested procedures of data
|
|
verification, theory testing and the burden of proof."
|
|
|
|
Oberg refers to the "residue fallacy." He says, "the basic difficulty
|
|
inherent in any investigation of phenomena such as those of...UFOs is that
|
|
it is impossible for science ever to prove a universal negative. There will
|
|
always be cases which remain unexplained because of lack of data, lack of
|
|
repeatability, false reporting, wishful thinking, deluded observers, rumors,
|
|
lies and fraud. A residue of unexplained cases is not a justification for
|
|
continuing an investigation after overwhelming evidence has disposed of the
|
|
hypothesis of supernormality..."
|
|
|
|
Oberg's reasoning is wrong on several counts. Although some residues may not
|
|
have much usefulness, from other residues have arisen such concepts as a
|
|
spherical earth, heliocentric solar system, Einstein's theories, the quantum
|
|
theory, evolution theory, sanitation and immunology. "Out of sight, out of
|
|
mind" is not an appropriate scientific response to unexplained data. A
|
|
recent view of scientific advancement is expressed: "...anomalies
|
|
accumulate; these can be ignored, but only for a while. At this point,
|
|
someone may find a different method of attack..." (_Encyclopaedia
|
|
Britannica_). Also, empirical observation is accepted scientifically. For
|
|
example, meteors were described before scientists believed that rocks could
|
|
fall from the sky. Even if all UFOs are IFOs, it is critical, in view of the
|
|
recently acquired human ability for self-destruction, to examine why such
|
|
widespread phenomena occur.
|
|
|
|
Oberg's article contends that the evidence that UFOs can be explained
|
|
prosaically is "overwhelming." But the index of the government-financed
|
|
Condon study showed that 23 of the 59 cases the committee examined were
|
|
unexplained. This is underwhelming support for Oberg's supposition,
|
|
especially when it appears that some explanations were vague and some cases
|
|
easily solved. In addition, in _Project Blue Book Special Report #14_,
|
|
commissioned by the Air Force to the Batelle Memorial Institute, it appears
|
|
that over 20 percent of the reports the Air Force investigated from mid-1947
|
|
to 1952 were classified as unknowns.
|
|
|
|
Another Oberg allegation is that "in the most devastating departure from
|
|
scientific methodology Ufologists reject the concept of `falsifiability' of
|
|
scientific theories." Yet the idea of hypothesis falsifiability itself is
|
|
questionable, for example: "Falsification was a rational but, in its crudest
|
|
form, an untenable alternative...of the concept of a crucial experiment..."
|
|
(For a discussion see the Encyclopaedia Britannica). In addition, although
|
|
people have been exposed to the UFO concept for only about 40 years and it
|
|
has taken tens of thousands of years for humanity to accept such concepts as
|
|
the heliocentric solar system, and although we may have less understanding
|
|
of the possible UFO phenomenon than an amoeba has of the Big Bang, and
|
|
although there may be more than one kind of unexplainable UFO, it is,
|
|
nevertheless, possible to test hypotheses.
|
|
|
|
For example, one might hypothesize that those who believe in UFOs would be
|
|
more likely to see them than nonbelievers would be, because the believers
|
|
think UFOs exist (termed wishful thinking in the Oberg article). From this
|
|
hypothesis one would predict that UFO observers would statistically come
|
|
from the population of believers.
|
|
|
|
But a representative sample (1575 people in the 1966 Gallup poll discussed
|
|
in the Condon report) showed that sighters did not differ from nonsighters
|
|
with respect to education, region of the country, age, or sex; however, age,
|
|
sex and education all appeared related to whether UFOs were considered to be
|
|
real or imaginary. Thus, the hypothesis that people see UFOs because they
|
|
are believers has been statistically falsified. (The percent of sighters
|
|
believing that UFOs were real was greater than that of non-sighters;
|
|
however, as the Condon reported mentioned, "...causal relations are
|
|
unexplored, we do not know whether seeing is believing, or believing is
|
|
seeing." These data would need to have been collected before the sightings
|
|
to be of use and even then factors such as discussed in Budd Hopkins' works
|
|
might cause inaccuracies).
|
|
|
|
One can mathematically test the "residual fallacy" hypothesis. IF
|
|
unexplained UFO sightings are caused by lack of information or inaccurate
|
|
perceptions, then with more information and better observers the number of
|
|
unexplained sightings should decrease. But the results of _Project Blue Book
|
|
Special Report #14_ (3201 reports selected from around 7200) showed that the
|
|
highest report category (excellent, E) had a higher percentage (33.3
|
|
percent) of unknowns than the poor category (16.6). In addition 38 percent
|
|
of the E unknown sightings were by military compared to around 1/4 in the
|
|
poor category. Thus, this hypothesis has been falsified by the results of a
|
|
large study.
|
|
|
|
Another common hypothesis is that UFOs are really known but misidentified
|
|
objects. Thus, one would expect that, in general, the characteristics of
|
|
UFOs would match conventional objects. For example a certain percent of
|
|
conventional flying objects are aircraft having a conventional lighting
|
|
arrangement and a certain percent are meteors. So, using combined
|
|
information, one would expect the frequencies of such characteristics to be
|
|
the same in the two groups. This hypothesis was tested in _Project Blue Book
|
|
Special Report #14_. Here the frequencies of several UFO/IFO characteristics
|
|
were examined using the chi square. In five of six categories there were
|
|
significant levels of p<.01, which mathematically falsifies this hypothesis.
|
|
|
|
Perhaps because the investigators didn't like this conclusion, they next
|
|
tried a controversial procedure of excluding the astronomical sightings from
|
|
only the knowns class. Still, significant differences existed in five of
|
|
these six categories. Although the study had experimental-design
|
|
deficiencies, this kind of examination with good reported data could be used
|
|
for hypothesis-testing (Maccabee, _Historical Introduction to Project Blue
|
|
Book Special Report #14_). Also, research such as the IFO work done by Jenny
|
|
Randles provides testable hypotheses.
|
|
|
|
Another of many factors that provide data for hypothesis testing is sonic
|
|
booms. One would hypothesize that if "believers" make up UFOs, they should
|
|
also make up sonic booms to accompany them. But the Condon Report states
|
|
that "the reported total absence of sonic booms from UFOs in supersonic
|
|
flight and undergoing rapid accelerations or intricate maneuvers,
|
|
particularly near the earth's surface, cannot be explained on the basis of
|
|
current knowledge. On the contrary, intense sonic booms are expected under
|
|
such conditions." Thus, this hypothesis has been falsified.
|
|
|
|
Such hypothesis-testing can indicate areas for further exploration. For
|
|
example, in instances of possible truly unexplained phenomena, these data
|
|
might be used to examine such characteristics as passage through the air to
|
|
investigate whether some UFOs may be holographic projections, or information
|
|
that can be transferred into the minds of more than one witness
|
|
simultaneously.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Another aspect reported in UFO observations is the absence of an
|
|
understandable propulsive system. The hypothesis of an unknown possible
|
|
propulsive system could be tested by a statistical comparison with IFOs,
|
|
such as of reported sounds. If there are significant differences, additional
|
|
hypotheses might be tested with appropriate experimental designs. Theories
|
|
might include the possibilities that humans are not sensitive to everything
|
|
in their environment; thus, evidence such as the phenomenon's possible
|
|
ability to disappear, reappear, and not show a propulsive system might
|
|
result from its having the ability to enter and withdraw from human sensory
|
|
fields.
|
|
|
|
In addition, since the physical properties that result in life (atomic
|
|
combinations, atoms, sub-atomic particles, waves, energy) are not known and
|
|
with quantum theory limitations may not be currently explainable, one should
|
|
consider the possibility that forms of life might exist that are extremely
|
|
different from earth life and not bound by such factors as gravitation and
|
|
air friction.
|
|
|
|
New theories, logic, methodology, and social changes may be important in UFO
|
|
studies. For example, quantum mechanics introduces people to such concepts
|
|
as observer-dependent phenomena, an observer-created universe, the idea that
|
|
what an observer does in the future defines what happens in the past, the
|
|
Bell inequality, faster-than-light signaling, and the questioning of the
|
|
idea of cause and effect. All of these ideas may be important to the UFO
|
|
phenomenon.
|
|
|
|
For example, the idea of multiple universes provides the theoretical
|
|
possibilities for other life forms. One characteristic of the human form of
|
|
life is negative entropy; with an external energy force it can homogenize
|
|
rather than disperse. This characteristic might be examined in quantum
|
|
experiments. The thesis of an observer-created reality could be used to
|
|
hypothesize that UFOs may be created by humans. If the speed of light is not
|
|
limiting, it might be possible to transfer information across the universe
|
|
instantaneously. Thus the UFO phenomenon might represent a form of
|
|
information transfer.
|
|
|
|
Oberg's _New Scientist_ essay concludes, "...if any of the claims of Ufology
|
|
prove valid it would indeed rate as a major scientific breakthrough, perhaps
|
|
one of the most important..." True. When the Condon Committee says of one of
|
|
the cases it investigated that "all factors...geometric, psychological, and
|
|
physical appear to be consistent with the assertion that an extraordinary
|
|
flying object, silvery, metallic, disc-shaped, tens of meters in diameter,
|
|
and evidently artificial, flew within sight of two witnesses," it is clear
|
|
that further scientific study of the UFO phenomenon is warranted.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*********************************************************************
|
|
* -------->>> THE U.F.O. BBS - http://www.ufobbs.com/ufo <<<------- *
|
|
********************************************************************* |