379 lines
19 KiB
Plaintext
379 lines
19 KiB
Plaintext
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Extracted from -:- Scientific American (May 1987, Volume 256, Number 5.),
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Orginally presented on Tequila Willy's Great Subterranean Carnival (Phreak/Hack
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ONLY system): -=*&@( 209/526-3194 )@&*=-
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- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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TELCOM '87 PREVIEW - PART 1
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A Report by Andrew Hargrave
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The 1983 TELECOM exhibition in Geneva signalled major advances in the
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technologies and structues of world telecommunications. The initials ISDN
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(Integrated Services Digital Network) made their first appearance,
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foreshadowing a convergence and integration of computers and
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telecommunications on a scale never before imagined. Since then there has
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been rapid progress in planning -- and to a certain degree implementing --
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ISDN which will eventually produce a global netowrk of voice, data, text and
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vision transmission available to both business and private users.
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TELCOM '87, bo be held in Geneva in October this year, will, in the words of
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Mr. Richard E. Butler, Secretary General of the organizers ITU (International
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Teelecommunications Union) "enable us to assess the results of all the work
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carried out in connection with the ISDN concept...and also demonstrate the
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benefits of telecommunications to the user."
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Mr. Butler stressed the need for standardization, with special emphasis on
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compatibility between products developed by the industires of the various
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countries. "Provided they comply with the standards established by the ITU,
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and in particular by the CCITT (International Telegraph and Telephone
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Consultative Committee), these industries will be able to supply products
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designed for interactive operations. This is what we hope to show at the
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exhibiton."
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Alongside the exhibiton, the World Telecommunicatons Forum will address some
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major issues, such as "whither telecommunications?"; its economic impact;
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relations between respective suppliers of computer services and of
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telecommunications equipment; the effect on the user; its role in improving
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production and speeding industrial research. "These are all fundamental
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questions which call for discussion," said Mr. Butler.
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They are also the main themes of this report -- the first of a twopart survey
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on international communications.
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TELECOMMUNICATIONS IN A FLUX
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Until relatively recently -- the late 1960s -- global telecommunications had
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presented a tidy pattern. National post/telecommunications administrations
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were ordering , maintaing and renewing autonomous networks normally from their
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national suppliers. They gradually provided, it is true, services additional
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to the voice-telephone, mail and telegraph, such as telex and facsimile
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transmission and, of course, televison and radio for news, entertainment,
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sports, etc. Service was fragmented too: the transmission and exchange of
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informaton -- of text, graphics and vision via the public network -- had not
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yet arrived.
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There were, of course, companies selling public electromechanical systems
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(Strowger, cross-bar) and later electronic analog systems, beyond their
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national frontiers. For L.M. Ericsson of Sweden, for instance, the national
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base was too small to sustain and expand the company, ITT, of the US, sought
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to bypass the AT&T monopoly in the national telecommunications service -- in
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both telephony and switching equipment -- by exporting their equipment through
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major subsidiaries such as CGCT in France, SEL in West Germany and others in
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the UK, Italy, Belgium, Spain and elsewhere.
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Among the most spectacular events of recent years has been the merging of
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Alcatel (telecommunications subsidaiary of the CGE group) of France and the
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telecommunications division of the US concern ITT in January this year. THe
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new company, Alcatel NV, is registered in the Netherlands but is headquarted
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in Brussels. The merger (in which Alcatel has a majority holding) has created
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the world's largest public switching and second-largest telecommunications
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company (after AT&T).
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AT&T itself set up four years ago a jointly owned company -APT- with Philips,
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of the Netherlands, Europe's top electrical and electronics concern alongside
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Siemens, of West Germany.
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North America (mainly the US) is, as Table II indicates, the largest single
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market in the world for public exchanges: hence the intense intrest shown by
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leading European suppliers, especially since the deregulation of local
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telephony and the breakup of the AT&T monopoly.
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The declining value of sales in Europe, at any rate, is largely due to the
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price advantage of digital hardware compared with its analog predecessor. (In
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the US, there are now virtually no analog replacements).
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The greater openness and diversity of the US public switching market had
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enabled Northern Telecom, of Canada, with its most up-do-date systems to
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challenge successfully AT&T on its home ground.
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Altogether, about a dozen major suppliers vie for the world's digital public
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switching contracts -- far too many, according to most experts. In addition
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to AT&T and APT, Alcatel-ITT, Siemens, Ericsson, Northern Telecom and GTE, the
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UK manufactures GEC and Plessy, so far unable to obtain contracts ouside the
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home country for their joint product System X, are apparently poised to enter
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the export market. Plessey has bought its way into the huge US market by
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acquiring Stromberg-Carlson, manufacturer of small and medium-sized public
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exchanges. Italtel, telecommunications subsidiary of the Italian state-owned
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information technology group STET, is also a recent entry on the global scene
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with its up-rated UT series, as is Telenokia, of Finland. Nor can the
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powerful Japanese trio, NEC (already active in the US), Hitachi and Fujitsu,
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be expected to stay out of Europe while digitalizing the home
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telecommunications network.
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Views differ whether the speedy advance and turmoil in the world's
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communications industry is mainly technology or user driven: a matter of
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varying attitudes by individual PTTs, business and private subscribers in the
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various countries -- the advanced industrial countries in the main.
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There is no doubt, however, about the concept which symbolizes progress in
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telecommunications technology in the remaining years of this century and
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beyond. It is ISDN.
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ISDN: NOW A REALITY
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"The biggest machine ever built, the international telephone network, is being
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revolutionized by the smallest machine ever devised, the microchip...", So
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says the European Commission's Information Technologies and Telecommuincations
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Task Force which claims that the new services represented by ISDN "will be
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commonplace from 1988 onwards."
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ISDN, as already indicated, integrates voice, data, text and vision in a
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single service. It is characterized not only by the linking of these
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functions in a single, terminal-assisted instrument panel, but by the speed of
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transmission (the Task Force suggests, teletex will be 100 times faster than
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today's telex; facsimile copiers will transmit at a rate of a page per
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second); but also by improved quality of sound; by caller identification; by
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extra security; by group conferencing in sound and vision; by access to new
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commerical services.
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Above all, ISDN promises to be cheaper, much cheaper than the present
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separately operated and billed services, though this depends on the pricing
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structures of PTTs as well as the prices of the ingredients: central
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computers, microprocessors, optic fiber cables, instruments, components and
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the most expensive single item in systems "architecture", software.
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The European Commission, in addition to calling for the adoption of common
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(CCITT, No 7) standards by PTTs of the 12 member countries, based first on 64
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Kbits/s and possibly later on 2 Mbits/s digital switching, has also set a
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timetable for the coordinated introduction of ISDN in Europe. It has hopes,
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too, of those standards being adopted by Japan and the US. The timetable
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envisages a three-stage development in the 1990s:
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--Expapansion and digitalization of existing telephone networks
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--Additional integrated services -- ISDN
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--Introduction of broadband communications to add vision to sound, text and
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data exchange facilities.
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As to specific target dates, the Commision has urged that by 1993, 80 percent
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of the subscribers in the European Community should have access to ISDN and,
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by the same year, 5 percent of subscriber lines -- the "critical mass" --
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should be connected to it. The whole program is estimated by the Task Force
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to cost $40 billion.
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BATTLE OF THE SYSTEMS:
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The flagship of telecommunication vendors competing in an over-supplied
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international market are the digital switching systems. The more modular
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(capable of up-rating), flexible, reliable and economical they are -- or claim
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to be -- the greater their chances of acceptance, at least theoretically. For
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there are other criteria, perhaps more decisive: the main one is politics,
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the preferences of the governments or the telecommunications administrations
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concerned, fortified or pushed by local pressures. That is why all the
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contenders for the purchase of CGCT, France's ailing denationalized second
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digital switching supplier, have armed themselves with a French partner: APT
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with SAT, Siemens with Jeumont-Schneider, Ericsson with Matra. CGCT is
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manufacturing the E10-B, France's Alcatel-designed system. Whoever wins
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possession of CGCT -- and it was, at the time of writing, going to be stictly
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on technical merit -- would introduce a seond switch into the French network:
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APT's 5ESS PRX, Siemens's EWSD, Ericsson's AXE. Or it could even be Northern
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Telecom's DMS 100, as the Canadian supplier was also invited to tender.
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Although CGCT provides only about 16 percent of French switching, an outside
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sytem, rival to France's own in what has hitherto been a purely national
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market, will give a powerful psychological and publicity boost to the
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successful contender; and so has Ericsson's break-through in the UK, adding
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AXE to the home-grown System X in the digital network.
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Only in Italy among the major European countries have competing systems
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managed to secure a substantial market share alongside the home suppliers
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through subsidiaries: FACE (System 12) and FATME (AXE). Even part of Italy's
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so-called "national-system" was supplied by an outsider -- GTE of the US --
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though more than half the requirements were met by Italtel, which is rapidly
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uprating its own UT system to provide exchanges with capacities of up to
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100,000 (later 200,000) lines. Under Italy's digitalization program, however,
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suppliers will eventually be limited to two: UT and System 12 (now supplied
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by the Alcatel group) or AXE.
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The size of the US market (About 40 percent of the world's public switching
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sales), has ensured a head-start for AT&T, with 31 million lines installed or
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on order (29 million in the US). Alcatel's ITT's 39 million lines (installed
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or on order) are divided between E10 and System 12 while Ericsson's almost 17
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million AXE lines have been sold to 66 countires -- the largest geographical
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spread in the world of any single system.
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Table IV gives a fair indication of how the competing major systems have fared
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in terms of installed lines.
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TRANSMISSION: THE FIBER OPTIC ROUTE
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Although the next generation of satellites will be able to carry a great deal
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more traffic, escalating demand -- especially for Europewide and later global
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DBS (Direct Broadcasting Satellites) -- planned existing and emerging networks
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-- foreshadows increading strain on the land and undersea cable systems. The
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significance of fiber optic development in this eontext alone cannont be
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underestimated.
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The speed of replacing copper by optic fiber is, of course, a question of
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national investment priorites and consequently varies from country to country.
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All the US, Japanese and European PTTs as weel as the major public switching
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suppliers are involved, some of the latter on their own, others in association
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with optic fiber specialists. Siemens, for instance, has a joint operation
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with Corning Glass, of the US -- Siecor -- to supply optic fiber for the West
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German and other networks. Italtel, state-owned, is negotiating with
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Flat-owned Telettra speciallizing in transmission for a merger which would
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raise the new group's Italian market share in transmission equipemtn to well
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over 50 percent.
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THE SHAPE OF NEW GENERATIONS OF COME
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Overcapacity in both public and private switching systems is stressed by all
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the major players; but there is also the technological aspect to global
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telecommunications. Several executives interviewed emphasized the point:
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there are too many systems and some will, perhaps over the next decade, come
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to the end of their technological cycle. For the cycles themselves are
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getting shorter.
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One reason may be that several of the present digital switching systems are
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"hybirds" -- i.e. developed from analog predecessors. According to Dr. Hans
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Baur, telecommunications chief and member of the Siemen's management board,
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Northern Telcom's DMS is the only genuine digital system conceived as such --
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which, says Dr. Baur, explains partly its outstanding success in the US and
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increasingly elsewhere.
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Mr. F.C. Kuznik, vice-president marketing of APT, talks of "three generations"
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of switching systems, starting with Alcatel's E10 in the early 1970s -- now
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balanced in the merged group with ITT's third-generation System 12 alongside
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Siemans' EWSD and AT&T-Philips's 5ESS PRX.
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In the 1990s, Dr. Baur reckons, telecommunications companies would have to
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gain a market share of around 15 percent to recover their costs comforably.
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Mr. Kuznik puts it even higher -- 15 to 18 percent, a share as already noted,
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achieved only by three of the players -- AT&T, Northern Telecom and
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Alcatel-ITT, the last-mentioned with two systems -- or even three, if
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Thomson's E10-MT is counted.
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Mr. Kuznik foresees in the 1990s not so much companies as "alignments" behind
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five technologies, a couple from North Aerica, one from Japan, a couple from
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Europe... (Dr. Baur speaks of "five or six"). They may come from mergers
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along the lines of Alcatel-ITT, or firm aliances such as AT&T and Philips; or
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limited partnerships such as GEC and Plessey (in respect of System X); or
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partial takeovers such as Siemens-GTE; or the proposed Italtel-Telettra deal.
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THe escalating cost of developing new technologies -- put at $1 billion per
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switching system some years ago by the then Philips chief executive Dr. Wisse
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Dekker, with ongoing development costing around $200 million a year (Mr.
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Kuznik) -- is one of the main factors of limiting the number of future
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participants. Its globality is stressed in the strongest terms by Mr.
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Philippe Gluntz, executive vice-president and chief operation officer of
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Alcatel NV: "We are one of the few manufactures able to offer the whole range
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of telecommunications equipment: digital switches, all kinds of transmission
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products from copper cables and fiber optics to satellite communications; all
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types of business systems from digital PABXs to microcomputers or electronics
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sub-sets, word processors, etc."
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Resources in terms of funds and range of products are vital for the
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prospective telecommunications survivors: but so is teh technology of the
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21st century.
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TABLES:
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TABLE I
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World public switching equipment sales of leading manufactures
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Company Sales of public
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switching equip
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in $ million
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AT&T (US) 1350
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Northern Telecom (Canada) 1000
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NEC/Fujitsu/Hitachi (Japan) 1000
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Siemens (West Germany) 950
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ITT (US *1) 850
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Ericsson (Sweden) 750
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Alcatel/Thomson (France) 700
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GTE (US) 350
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Plessey (UK *2) 260
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GEC (UK) 260
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Italtel (Italy) 180
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Philips (Netherlands *3) 130
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Stromberg-Carlson (US *4) 70
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Others (inc. Nokia, Finland) 120
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----
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7970
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___________________________________
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*
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1) Now Alcatel NV through merging Alcatel/ITT telecommunications intrests
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2) Involved in talks on merging certain System X functions
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3) Set up APT to cater for world telecommunications sales outside US
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4) Subsidiary of Plessey, mainly for US switching
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TABLE II
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Estimated public exchange sales revenue: $ million
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____________________________________
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1985 1986 1986-1990's
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(annual avg)
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____________________________________
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US 2,249 2,459 2,000
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Europe 2,977 2,724 2,365
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(of which
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digital) 931 1,070 1,626
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____________________________________
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TABLE III
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Telephone networks desities world comparions 1984/85
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No. of
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resi-
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dential
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connec-
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No. of tions
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No. of lines per 100
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lines in per 100 house-
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Country serice pop. holds
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Sweden 5.1 61.5 111.4
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US 114.3 48.3 96.7
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Canada 11.2 44.6 109.3
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West Germany 24.9 40.7 87.6
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France 22.1 40.2 98.0
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Australia 6.2 39.5 91.3
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Netherlands 5.6 39.0 82.8
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Japan 44.4 37.0 80.2
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UK 20.8 36.9 78.4
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Italy 16.5 28.9 68.5
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Spain 8.7 22.5 58.0
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TABLE IV
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Sales of major digital systems, 1985
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Systems/Company No of market
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lines share %
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instld
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000s
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5ESS-PRX (AT&T - APT) 5,555 18.1
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DM Series -- Northern 5,269 17.2
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Telecom
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E10-B/E10-MT -- 3,600 11.7
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(Alcatel)
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AXE -- Ericsson 2,900 9.4
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System 12 -- ITT 2,883 9.4
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(now Alcatel)
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EWSD -- Siemens 2,479 8.1
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GTD -- GTE 1,903 6.2
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NEAX 61E -- NEC 1,750 5.1
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(Japan)
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_____________________________________
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1) System X deliveries, by GEC and Plessey, began only in 1985: they were at
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the time of writing only confined to the UK (1 million lines delivered by
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March this year). Italtel's UT series, too, are relatively recent in their
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uprated form. Stromberg-Carlson (Plessey's US subsidiary): Century series
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are designed mainly for small to medium-sized exchanges. Telenokia's (Finlad)
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DEX series are designed principally for rural networks.
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