74 lines
4.4 KiB
Plaintext
74 lines
4.4 KiB
Plaintext
**********************************************************************
|
||
|
||
The Soviet Space Program - the Next Five Years
|
||
|
||
In response to the publication of "Soviet Military Power" by the DoD,
|
||
and Aviation Week magazine's continuing predictions over the years, this
|
||
DL entry takes a dissenting position, not based on classified
|
||
information, but on a historical perspective of the Soviet space
|
||
program, and projects past performance into the future.
|
||
For those who have missed the above publications, their basic position
|
||
is that the USSR is embarked upon three major projects, each rivaling
|
||
our Shuttle program in scope and cost. These are: 1) A Saturn IB class
|
||
booster that will used to launch a mini-shuttle, 2) A Shuttle with
|
||
greater capacity than ours, and 3) A Heavy Lift booster, comparable in
|
||
size to our Saturn V, that will be used to launch the a Skylab-sized
|
||
core for a huge space station. All of these projects are claimed to be
|
||
in their final stages of development, with first launch to come within a
|
||
year or two. As a final spectacular note, the DoD publication claims
|
||
that a Mars mission is being contemplated by the Soviets for the year
|
||
1992.
|
||
Each of these projects pre-supposes the development of liquid hydrogen
|
||
engines at least the size of the Saturn J-2 engine, and possibly the
|
||
size of the Space shuttle main engine. As the Soviets have yet to
|
||
demonstrate the use of even a Centaur-class LH2 engine, it has not yet
|
||
been explained how the Soviets will develop this highly advanced
|
||
technology in the next year.
|
||
The actual Soviet practice over the years has been:
|
||
1) Use of non-cryogenic fuels whenever possible.
|
||
2) Use of assembly line techniques to develop economies of scale in
|
||
production of both boosters and spacecraft.
|
||
3) Slow development of programs with evolutionary, not revolutionary
|
||
steps, contrasted with the huge jumps that the US program has made such
|
||
as between Gemini and Apollo, and Apollo and the Shuttle.
|
||
4) Thorough unmanned testing of systems before first launch.
|
||
5) Confusing public statements to disguise their real intent, and to
|
||
cover their tracks in case of failure.
|
||
|
||
Based on these practices, the following predictions are in order for
|
||
the year 1990:
|
||
1) Continued use of Salyut, but with modifications. These could be a)
|
||
use of a multiple docking adaptor to allow several cargo vehicles to
|
||
dock simultaneously, b) regular crew rotation, with Salyut occupancy
|
||
near 100%, c) use of Soyuz orbital modules left attached to Salyut to
|
||
increase living space, and d) permanent attachment of Star modules to
|
||
increase living space, provide more electrical power, and to provide
|
||
more on-board equipment.
|
||
2) Use of a small LH2 engine on either the A class booster or Proton to
|
||
increase payload of cargo missions or size of Salyut.
|
||
3) Development of a Dyna-soar class shuttle, coupled with development
|
||
of a LH2 engine to allow a vehicle of 50,000+ lbs, including engine
|
||
weight with the Proton booster. This is doubtful, as launch of a Star
|
||
module without the minishuttle would result in greater payload capacity.
|
||
4) Use of more sophisticated EVA equipment, such as a MMU, to allow
|
||
cosmonauts to maneuver more freely in open space.
|
||
5) Continued use of ICBMs as launch vehicles, possibly the SS-18 in the
|
||
near-term. This could become the new J Class vehicle, with orbital
|
||
capabilities rivaling the A class, with easier launch operations, and
|
||
greater reliability. (This is not to be confused with the all-new
|
||
J-Class vehicle postulated by the DoD, with a payload of 30,000+ lbs).
|
||
Coupled with a LH2 stage, the vehicle could be more powerful than any
|
||
booster except the D class. As this vehicle has already been proven,
|
||
conversion to space use could be rapid, once the decision is made to do
|
||
so, possibly after an arms agreement with the U.S.
|
||
6) Of course, longer stays in orbit, up to 365 days.
|
||
7) More female cosmonauts, but an all-female crew is unlikely.
|
||
8) Continued exploration of the planets through unmanned probes.
|
||
9) Cosmos 2000 (at least!).
|
||
10) Rumors of an impending Mars flight by the Soviets, of a heavy lift
|
||
vehicle, and a heavy shuttle.
|
||
11) Statements by the Soviets that they plan on a Cosmograd, that
|
||
colonization of the planets is a goal, and that they will build a
|
||
shuttle.
|
||
In other words, more of the same.
|
||
|