102 lines
5.5 KiB
Plaintext
102 lines
5.5 KiB
Plaintext
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A Revival of the 61-Month Wave Theory
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by Donald A. Johnson, Ph.D.
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P.O. Box 161
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Kirkland, Washington 98033
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The Knowles family CE-II encounter with an ovoid-shaped UFO
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on the Nullarbor Plateau in Western Australia January 20th was
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right on target in terms of time and place, according to the
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61-month wave cycle first proposed by Dr. David Saunders back in
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1971. At least two other UFO encounters of major importance
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occurred that same night in Australia and Tasmania. If the
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indications are correct and this is not an isolated incident but
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the beginnings of a major UFO wave, we will have to reconsider
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the significance of this long-term prediction in terms of our
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ability to predict and act upon the occurrence of this and
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future UFO waves.
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Dr. David Saunders first noticed the regularity in major
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American UFO waves (1947, 1952, 1957 and 1967) in the early
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months of 1971 while working with the UFOCAT computer catalog at
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the University of Colorado. He determined that what
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distinguished these UFO waves from other, possibly
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publicity-generated UFO waves, was the shape of their
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distributions. These were waves of UFO reports in which the
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frequency of daily reports began building slowly, built to a
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crescendo, and then diminished rapidly. These
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negatively-skewed UFO waves occurred with a periodicity of five
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years, or more accurately 61-months, with an accuracy in peak
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prediction to within a day or so (1).
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Furthermore, another characteristic of these five-year
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waves was the progressively eastward movement of their loci of
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activity. The first wave crested in July 1947 and occurred
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predominantly in the Pacific and Mountain States. The 1952 wave
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reached its peak in late August 1952 with the majority of
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reports coming from Midwestern States. Each successive wave
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appeared to move approximately 30 degrees east in longitude.
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The absence of a 1962 wave was accounted for by a search of
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South American references which revealed a Brazilian and
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Argentinian UFO wave in September, and the 1967 wave--which
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began on the Eastern seaboard of the United States--actually
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crested in November of that year in England.
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Saunders was able to make his first prediction that a major
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UFO wave would occur in the vicinity of 30 degrees East
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longitude and peak in December 1972 over a year prior to its
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occurrence. This prediction was borne out by the occurrence of
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a UFO wave in South Africa in late November. However, most
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ufologists lost interest in the theory when the predicted waves
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for 1977-78 and 1983 failed to materialize (so far as we can
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tell). Both of these waves should have occurred in countries
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controlled predominantly by governments unfriendly to the West.
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Saunders continues to have faith in the theory and has offered a
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consistent, convincing response to critics: that it is unfair
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to judge the merits of the theory on what we may or may not hear
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about from the Soviet Union.
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According to calculations (see table below), the next great
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UFO wave should occur between now and the beginning of March,
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centered at 120 degrees East longitude. The Nullarbor Plain is
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at approximately 127 degrees East longitude. The wave should
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also unfold in the same characteristic manner as the earlier
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waves, building slowly in intensity in the number of daily
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reports and diminishing rapidly after reaching a peak.
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Table 1
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The 61-Month Wave Cycle and Corresponding UFO Waves
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Predicted Actual Peak Predicted Actual
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Date Date Longitude Location
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July 1947 July 8, 1947 120o W Northwestern U.S.
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Aug. 1952 Aug. 3, 1952 90o W Central and Eastern U.S.
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Sep. 1957 Aug. 21, 1957 60o W Central and Eastern U.S.
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Oct. 1962 Sep. 1962 30o W Brazil
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Nov. 1967 Oct. 24, 1967 0o W Atlantic, England
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Dec. 1972 Nov. 1972 30o E South Africa
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Jan. 1978 ? 60o E ?
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Feb. 1983 ? 90o E ?
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Mar. 1988 Feb. 1988(?) 120o E Australia(?)
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A corrollary to the Saunders' spatio-temporal wave theory
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is that physical evidence cases should occur at approximately
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the same time world-wide; thus, if the Australian close
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encounters continue to occur during the pre-dawn hours, we
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should expect U.S. CE-II cases to occur in the evening hours
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between 4 and 10 p.m., since the United States and Australia
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have a time difference of some 8 to 11 hours.
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We shall soon see if new evidence merits the revival of
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an old theory.
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(1) Saunders, D.R. (1976). A spatio-temporal invariant for
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major UFO waves. In N. Dornbos (ed.), Proceedings of the 1976
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CUFOS Conference. Evanston, IL: Center for UFO Studies.
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