71 lines
3.6 KiB
Plaintext
71 lines
3.6 KiB
Plaintext
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#: 37055 S4/FCC & Regulatory
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30-Dec-90 09:44:10
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Sb: #36821-No Code
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Fm: richard hoffbeck, N0LOX 72406,521
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To: Fritz Anderson WT9T 70050,172
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Here is the age distribution from the FCC callsign database of 11/1988
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Total # Percentage Median Average
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License Class Licenses of Total Age Age
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-------------- -------- ---------- ------ -------
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Novice 95,750 19.94% 42 42.19
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Technician 109,192 22.74% 48 48.43
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General 122,959 25.61% 57 55.70
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Advanced 104,253 21.71% 56 56.26
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Extra 47,937 9.98% 51 52.81
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-------------- -------- ---------- ------ -------
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All Classes 480,101 100.00% 51 51.19
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Number of Licenses By Age And Class - All U.S.
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Age | Novice| Techni | General|Advanced| Extra | Total |
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Range | | -cian | | | | |
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---------+-------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
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< 20 | 7,670| 1,933| 486| 141| 115| 10,345|
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20 - 24 | 9,472| 2,893| 1,268| 529| 377| 14,539|
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25 - 29 | 8,889| 5,804| 3,898| 2,074| 1,317| 21,982|
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30 - 34 | 8,769| 9,404| 5,013| 4,505| 2,496| 30,187|
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35 - 39 | 10,203| 12,960| 8,260| 8,795| 4,523| 44,741|
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40 - 44 | 10,573| 15,317| 12,663| 12,464| 6,897| 57,914|
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45 - 49 | 9,544| 13,837| 14,695| 12,552| 7,501| 58,129|
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50 - 54 | 7,223| 10,393| 12,220| 9,566| 5,392| 44,794|
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55 - 59 | 5,810| 8,776| 11,130| 8,151| 3,549| 37,416|
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60 - 64 | 5,561| 8,883| 13,070| 9,136| 3,489| 40,139|
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65 - 69 | 5,417| 7,915| 14,834| 11,117| 4,205| 43,488|
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70 - 74 | 3,540| 5,754| 11,575| 10,682| 3,998| 35,549|
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75 - 79 | 1,871| 3,239| 7,262| 7,332| 2,247| 21,951|
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>= 80 | 1,208| 2,084| 6,585| 7,209| 1,831| 18,927|
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---------+-------+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
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Totals | 95,750| 109,192| 122,959| 104,253| 47,937| 480,101|
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If you plot the previous numbers you'll find that the distribution is bimodal
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with peaks at the WWII ages (smaller peak) and the Sputnik crowd (larger peak).
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The immediate population is not a problem, but the fact that only 3% of all
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hams are 20 years of age or less may prove troublesome in the next 20 years of
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so.
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I also thought that the age distribution was a pressing problem until I got a
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copy of the callsign database and actually calculated the numbers. The second
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issue, a 'aliasing' due the the shift from a 5 year to 10 year license term is
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also of dubious value. In scanning through the Region 0 data (I don't keep the
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whole thing on-line), I found that only 97% of the licenses listed in 1988 had
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been issued or renewed since the change in license terms in 1983. Of the
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remaining 3%, 2/3 of those were due to expire in the period 1989 - 1992 -- the
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remaining 1% due to expire in 1988. Anyway, the maximum loss possible due to
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silent keys, etc is only on the order of 3%.
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On the other hand, there was a piece that made the rounds on packet,
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WorldRadio, etc, to the effect that since the number of hams has been growing
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at a faster rate than the population as a whole there is no problem. That type
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of analysis is faulty in assuming that society as a whole has remained at the
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same level of technology. I think that ham radio has definitely declined in
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importance due to technological advances across the board.
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rick, N0LOX
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