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186 lines
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(word processor parameters LM=8, RM=75, TM=2, BM=2)
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Taken from KeelyNet BBS (214) 324-3501
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Sponsored by Vangard Sciences
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PO BOX 1031
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Mesquite, TX 75150
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There are ABSOLUTELY NO RESTRICTIONS
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on duplicating, publishing or distributing the
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files on KeelyNet!
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November 24, 1990
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61CYCLE.ASC
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this file courtesy of the Darkside at 314-644-6705
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A Revival of the 61-Month Wave Theory
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by Donald A. Johnson, Ph.D.
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P.O. Box 161
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Kirkland, Washington 98033
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The Knowles family CE-II encounter with an ovoid-shaped UFO on the
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Nullarbor Plateau in Western Australia January 20th was right on
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target in terms of time and place, according to the 61-month wave
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cycle first proposed by Dr. David Saunders back in 1971. At least
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two other UFO encounters of major importance occurred that same
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night in Australia and Tasmania.
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If the indications are correct and this is not an isolated incident
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but the beginnings of a major UFO wave, we will have to reconsider
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the significance of this long-term prediction in terms of our
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ability to predict and act upon the occurrence of this and future
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UFO waves.
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Dr. David Saunders first noticed the regularity in major American
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UFO waves (1947, 1952, 1957 and 1967) in the early months of 1971
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while working with the UFOCAT computer catalog at the University of
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Colorado.
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He determined that what distinguished these UFO waves from other,
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possibly publicity-generated UFO waves, was the shape of their
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distributions.
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These were waves of UFO reports in which the frequency of daily
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reports began building slowly, built to a crescendo, and then
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diminished rapidly. These negatively-skewed UFO waves occurred
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with a periodicity of five years, or more accurately 61-months, with
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an accuracy in peak prediction to within a day or so (1).
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Furthermore, another characteristic of these five-year waves was the
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progressively eastward movement of their loci of activity.
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The first wave crested in July 1947 and occurred predominantly in
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the Pacific and Mountain States. The 1952 wave reached its peak in
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late August 1952 with the majority of reports coming from Midwestern
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States.
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Page 1
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Each successive wave appeared to move approximately 30 degrees east
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in longitude.
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The absence of a 1962 wave was accounted for by a search of South
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American references which revealed a Brazilian and Argentinian UFO
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wave in September, and the 1967 wave--which began on the Eastern
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seaboard of the United States--actually crested in November of that
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year in England.
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Saunders was able to make his first prediction that a major UFO wave
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would occur in the vicinity of 30 degrees East longitude and peak in
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December 1972 over a year prior to its occurrence.
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This prediction was borne out by the occurrence of a UFO wave in
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South Africa in late November. However, most ufologists lost
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interest in the theory when the predicted waves for 1977-78 and 1983
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failed to materialize (so far as we can tell).
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Both of these waves should have occurred in countries controlled
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predominantly by governments unfriendly to the West.
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Saunders continues to have faith in the theory and has offered a
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consistent, convincing response to critics: that it is unfair to
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judge the merits of the theory on what we may or may not hear about
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from the Soviet Union.
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According to calculations (see table below), the next great UFO wave
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should occur between now and the beginning of March, centered at 120
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degrees East longitude. The Nullarbor Plain is at approximately 127
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degrees East longitude.
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The wave should also unfold in the same characteristic manner as the
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earlier waves, building slowly in intensity in the number of daily
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reports and diminishing rapidly after reaching a peak.
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Table 1
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The 61-Month Wave Cycle and Corresponding UFO Waves
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Predicted Actual Peak Predicted Actual
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Date Date Longitude Location
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July 1947 July 8, 1947 120o W Northwestern U.S.
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Aug. 1952 Aug. 3, 1952 90o W Central & Eastern U.S.
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Sep. 1957 Aug. 21, 1957 60o W Central & Eastern U.S.
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Oct. 1962 Sep. 1962 30o W Brazil
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Nov. 1967 Oct. 24, 1967 0o W Atlantic, England
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Dec. 1972 Nov. 1972 30o E South Africa
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Jan. 1978 ? 60o E ?
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Feb. 1983 ? 90o E ?
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Mar. 1988 Feb. 1988(?) 120o E Australia(?)
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Apr. 1993 150o E Guam(?)
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A corrollary to the Saunders' spatio-temporal wave theory is that
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physical evidence cases should occur at approximately the same time
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world-wide; thus, if the Australian close encounters continue to
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occur during the pre-dawn hours, we should expect U.S. CE-II cases
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to occur in the evening hours between 4 and 10 p.m., since the
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United States and Australia have a time difference of some 8 to 11
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hours.
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Page 2
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We shall soon see if new evidence merits the revival of an old
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theory.
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(1) Saunders, D.R. (1976). A spatio-temporal invariant for major
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UFO waves. In N. Dornbos (ed.), Proceedings of the 1976
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CUFOS Conference. Evanston, IL: Center for UFO Studies.
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--------------------------------------------------------------------
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Vangard Note
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We received a call from a fellow working in GUAM...he had
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a photocopy of the 61CYCLE article and had projected the
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next UFO flap to occur in that region of the world.
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So, there is now a worldmap (61CYCLE.GIF) showing all the
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cycles from 1947 to what should follow for 1993 and 1998.
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Note, the flaps are projected to occur every 5 years
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(61 months) and at 30 degree longitude intervals as they
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cross the globe. They are not exact.
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The fellow who called wondered if any person or group
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might wish to monitor this area to collect data in the
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event this cycle can be predicted.
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--------------------------------------------------------------------
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If you have comments or other information relating to such topics
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as this paper covers, please upload to KeelyNet or send to the
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Vangard Sciences address as listed on the first page.
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Thank you for your consideration, interest and support.
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Jerry W. Decker.........Ron Barker...........Chuck Henderson
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Vangard Sciences/KeelyNet
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--------------------------------------------------------------------
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If we can be of service, you may contact
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Jerry at (214) 324-8741 or Ron at (214) 242-9346
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--------------------------------------------------------------------
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Page 3
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